Hideki Matsuyama came within one swing of winning the WM Phoenix Open, but over four days at TPC Scottsdale, one number told the story of why it slipped away.

That number was driving accuracy percentage.

Matsuyama finished the week hitting just 44.64 percent of fairways, tied for 68th in the field — a sharp drop from his 58.50 percent mark for the 2025 season. The PGA TOUR average for driving accuracy is roughly 60 percent, where it has hovered consistently for the past decade.

At TPC Scottsdale, however, that part of his game never quite found its rhythm.

The missed fairways did not immediately cost him. In fact, Matsuyama landed himself atop the leaderboard despite missing over half of the fairways off the tee. By Saturday evening he held the 54-hole lead, a situation he had converted into victory every previous time in his PGA TOUR career. It was familiar territory at a familiar venue: Matsuyama is a two-time winner of the WM Phoenix Open and has long been one of the most reliable performers at TPC Scottsdale.

What allowed him to survive the week was his approach and short game. Matsuyama ranked second in strokes gained approach to green and around the green, third in strokes gained putting, and tied for first in strokes gained total. His iron play and short game repeatedly erased the consequences of missed fairways, allowing him to maintain control, even as his driver remained uncooperative.

Over the course of the tournament, Matsuyama lost 4.809 strokes to the field off the tee, an unusually large number for a player otherwise performing extraordinarily well. By late Sunday, the margin for error had narrowed considerably while his driving accuracy dipped further, hitting just three fairways (21.43 percent) in the final round.

On the 72nd hole, Matsuyama missed the fairway once more, leading to a bogey that dropped him into a playoff rather than sealing a regulation win. Another errant drive found the water off the tee on the first playoff hole against Chris Gotterup which effectively ended his chances of claiming a third WM Phoenix Open title.

It would be overly simplistic to pin the loss on either of those swings on the 18th tee alone. Any number of shots earlier in the week could have changed the outcome entirely. Still, those final two drives stand out because they were the most visceral moments of the tournament, moments which emphasized the problem Matsuyama had been battling all week: a driver that refused to cooperate at the most exacting moments.

Complicating matters, Matsuyama faced audible crowd distractions during his putt on the 72nd hole to win the tournament and again on the tee during the playoff, forcing him to stop mid-swing. While Matsuyama is one of the most seasoned and accomplished players in the game—a Masters champion, 11-time PGA TOUR winner, and Olympic medalist—regaining full commitment after a disruption is never trivial, particularly during a round in which confidence with the driver is already fragile.

On a course that rewards aggressive play but punishes imprecision Matsuyama compensated missed fairways well with superb iron play and short game. In the end it was perhaps one missed fairway too many to bring home the win.